It’s now August and hockey is again just a month away, with the World Cup of Hockey in September, which means — yes — it is that time of the year again! This month we will be previewing each team’s 2016-17 season. Tonight, it’s the Vancouver Canucks.
Category Archives: NHL ANALYSIS
It’s now August and hockey is again just a month away, with the World Cup of Hockey in September, which means — yes — it is that time of the year again! This month we will be previewing each team’s 2016-17 season. Tonight, it’s the Calgary Flames.
It’s now August and hockey is again just a month away, with the World Cup of Hockey in September, which means — yes — it is that time of the year again! This month we will be previewing each team’s 2016-17 season. Tonight, it’s the Arizona Coyotes.
It’s now August and hockey is again just a month away, with the World Cup of Hockey in September, which means — yes — it is that time of the year again! This month we will be previewing each team’s 2016-17 season. Tonight, it’s the Edmonton Oilers.
It’s now August and hockey is again just a month away, with the World Cup of Hockey in September, which means — yes — it is that time of the year again! This month we will be previewing each team’s 2016-17 season. Tonight, it’s the San Jose Sharks.
It’s the best time of the year again! With the playoff match-ups all set, it’s time to take a look at each series and who has the advantage. For two days, I’ll be covering both conferences leading up to the first day of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Today, it’s the Eastern Conference.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings
|Tampa Bay Lightning||Detroit Red Wings||Advantage|
|224 GF||209 GF||Lightning|
|2.73 GF/GP||2.55 GF/GP||Lightning|
|198 GA||219 GA||Lightning|
|2.41 GA/GP||2.67 GA/GP||Lightning|
|55.6 CF60||52.9 CF60||Lightning|
|50.9 CA60||49.3 CA60||Wings|
|50.5% FO||50.2% FO||Lightning|
|15.8% PP (28th in the League)||18.8% PP (13thin the League)||Wings|
|84.0% PK (7th in the League)||81.5% PK (14th in the League)||Lightning|
Overall Advantage: Lightning
Prediction: Lightning in 5
One year later in this Stanley Cup Playoff rematch, the Tampa Bay Lightning still dominate just about every statistical category there is. This is a team that’s been to the Stanley Cup Finals, and I think at the very least they’ll have enough to get past the first round. However, they are battling injuries right now. Steven Stamkos is out for 1-3 months with a blood clot issue. Anton Stralman is out indefinitely with a broken leg. Tyler Johnson is nursing an upper body, and the list goes on. However, the good news for Lightning fans is that just a day ago, Tampa Bay’s beat writer Bryan Burns wrote that most of their roster was in attendance for their first playoff practice session. That included Victor Hedman (upper body), Ryan Callahan (lower body), and Nikita Kucherov (undisclosed).
Could Hedman, Callahan, and Kucherov be in for Game 1 of this series on Wednesday night? That remains to be seen. However, it is likely that one or more of the aforementioned players will draw into the line-up against the Detroit Red Wings.
The player they can’t have injured in the playoffs, though, is Ben Bishop who was a big reason why the Lightning finished strong. Bishop finished the 2015-16 regular season with a League-best 2.06 GAA and tied goalie John Grahame from 2003-04 season for the franchise record for GAA in a single season. Bishop is big in net at 6′ 7″. He’s square to the puck, and when you have a goalie like him who can make the saves with ease, it definitely bolsters the team’s confidence offensively.
On the Red Wings side of things, it looks pretty iffy for them. This is a team that’s struggled all season, and there was doubt that their streak of consecutive playoff appearances would come to an end at 24. Well, fortunately for them, they had the Ottawa Senators to thank for making it 25 straight. Unfortunately for them, the fact that they couldn’t play well enough consistently is an issue.
Aside from their issues in net with Jimmy Howard, their defense as a whole is a problem. Their captain, Henrik Zetterberg, finished the regular season as a -15. Niklas Kronwall, a team-worst -21. Justin Abdelkader was a -16. Those are all really bad numbers. Now, usually, I wouldn’t look too much into the plus-minuses since they’re frowned upon by many. But when you have minus stats that bad, the alarm’s got to go off.
Offensively, I think this Red Wings team is going to try to take advantage of a Lightning team without Stamkos, but they won’t make it. This Lightning team is too deep and too talented. As I’ve said, they’ve been there, and unless Bishop has an off night, it’s going to be hard to get one past the big goaltender.
New York Islanders vs. Florida Panthers
|New York Islanders||Florida Panthers||Advantage|
|227 GF||232 GF||Panthers|
|2.77 GF/GP||2.83 GF/GP||Panthers|
|211 GA||200 GA||Panthers|
|2.57 GA/GP||2.44 GA/GP||Panthers|
|54.9 CF60||48.0 CF60||Islanders|
|56.0 CA60||50.6 CA60||Panthers|
|50.9% FO||50.8% FO||Islanders|
|18.3% PP (17th in the League)||16.9% PP (23rd in the League)||Islanders|
|84.5% PK (4th in the League)||79.5% PK (24th in the League)||Islanders|
Overall Advantage: Panthers
Prediction: Panthers in 6
The Panthers had not gone to the playoffs since 2012 when they lost in the first round, and have not been in the Stanley Cup Finals since the 1995-96 season when they lost against the Colorado Avalanche. Despite the plethora of youth, I feel like this team is going to get past the first round. They have enough offensive depth to move forward. Their leading scorer, Alexsander Barkov, finished with 28 goals on the season. The ageless wonder, Jaromir Jagr, finished second in team scoring with 27 goals, but lead the team in points with 66.
They also have a pretty good defense with Aaron Ekblad, Brian Campbell and Alex Petrovic. Ekblad finished the 2015-16 campaign with a +18. Campbell had a team-leading +31, and Petrovic a +17.
Of course, in net, they have Roberto Luongo as a starter with a .922 SV%, 2.35 GAA, and 4 shutouts. Al Montoya finished the regular season with a record of 12-7-3 and a .919 SV% and 2.18 GAA.
The Islanders do have more playoff experience than the Florida Panthers. However, they are currently battling injuries. Per Rotoworld, goalie Jaroslav Halak will mess the entire first round to a groin injury. He has been skating, however, according to Isles head coach Jack Capuano he’s still a long way to go. That means per a tweet by Brian Compton, the Deputy Managing Editor of NHL.com, Thomas Greiss will be in for Game 1. Greiss and Jean-Francois Berube will rotate throughout the series.
Others include Anders Lee (leg) who is out indefinitely, Brian Strait (upper body), Jean-Francois Berube (lower body), Travis Hamonic (knee), and Mikhail Grabovski (upper body) who are all day-to-day. So the big question will be which of the rest of the injured players will make the line-up and who won’t.
Injuries aside, I expect that John Tavares will be leading his team offensively, as he scored a team-leading 33 goals in the regular season. With the Anders Lee injury, Brock Nelson will have to step up in his place. While Nelson’s consistency has been an issue at times, he still scored 26 goals on the season. So, should he continue to light the lamp in the first round, that could help determine whether or not the Isles will advance to round 2.
In the end, statistically the Panthers have the edge, and while the Isles do have more playoff experience, my gut instinct tells me to pick the underdog in this one.
New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
|New York Rangers||Pittsburgh Penguins||Advantage|
|233 GF||241 GF||Penguins|
|2.84 GF/GP||2.94 GF/GP||Penguins|
|215 GA||199 GA||Penguins|
|2.62 GA/GP||2.43 GA/GP||Penguins|
|57.9 CF60||51.4 CF60||Rangers|
|52.0 CA60||57.1 CA60||Rangers|
|49.2% FO||50.2% FO||Penguins|
|18.6% PP (14th in the League)||18.4 PP (16th in the League)||Rangers|
|78.2% PK (26th in the League)||84.4% PK (5th in the League)||Penguins|
Overall Advantage: Penguins
Prediction: Penguins in 6
The Penguins have a decided advantage in this match-up. You’re talking about a team with two of the biggest superstars in the line-up, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, and even if Malkin’s still injured you still have Crosby, who had a great second half of the season. This team has the speed to go after any team in the League. Their second line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino, and Phil Kessel has been lighting it up, combining for 12 points in their last 5 games. The one uncertainty for them would be in net. Can Marc-Andre Fleury play in Game 1? He’s been out with a concussion but he has been practicing and hopes to be the man in between the pipes for Pittsburgh. The other option would be Matt Murray, who sustained a head injury at the end of the season. However, if Murray can’t play, the worst case scenario would be Jeff Zatkoff.
Speaking of stopping pucks in net, the Rangers have the one person to save their bacon almost every time things start to fall apart for them. Ladies and gentlemen, the King of New York, Henrik Lundqvist. This season, he finished with a .920 SV%, 2.48 GAA, and 4 shutouts. This is the guy who can really steal games for the New York Rangers when nothing goes right for them. Up front, however, the Rangers need Ryan McDonagh to be their guy, their captain and leader for this team. Unfortunately, according to head coach Alain Vigneault, McDonagh will have to sit out Game 1 with a hand injury he sustained on April 4th. He’s considered day-to-day.
All-in-all, I think Pittsburgh is just a faster team. It shows in their play on the ice, and the stats tilt heavily in their favor. This is a strong puck possession team, and when you can possess the puck so much, you have offense on your side, and in their case they have more than enough weapons to get past the New York Rangers. I honestly don’t think just the work of Lundqvist in net is going to help the Rangers beat the Penguins.
Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers
|Washington Capitals||Philadelphia Flyers||Advantage|
|248 GF||211 GF||Capitals|
|3.02 GF/GP||2.57 GF/GP||Capitals|
|191 GA||210 GA||Capitals|
|2.33 GA/GP||2.56 GA/GP||Capitals|
|56.1 CF60||57.6 CF60||Flyers|
|53.9 CA60||56.2 CA60||Flyers|
|49.6% FO||51.0% FO||Flyers|
|21.9% PP (5th in the League)||18.9% PP (11th in the League)||Capitals|
|85.2% PK (2nd in the League)||80.5% PK (20th in the League)||Capitals|
Overall Advantage: Capitals
Prediction: Capitals in 6
The Washington Capitals faced little to no adversity in the regular season, clinching the President Trophy for first in the League with a record of 56-18-8. While statistically speaking, the Capitals do have the upper-hand against the Philadelphia Flyers, they need to be careful and not let their guard down. Consistency will definitely be a factor, as the Flyers won’t go down without a fight. In fact, I expect them to go all out against the Capitals in the wake of their late owner and founder Ed Snider’s passing. While Holtby has looked a bit shaky in the final couple weeks of the regular season. there’s no doubt that the undisputed Vezina winner will be able to out duel Michael Neuvirth or Steve Mason in net at the other end. Holtby finished the regular season with a .922 SV%, 2.20 GAA, and 3 shutouts.
For the Flyers, defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere was fantastic in his rookie campaign. netting 17 goals and is 5th among all NHL rookies with 46 points, just two behind up-and-coming League superstar Connor McDavid. Wayne Simmonds also had a good year, with 32 goals and 28 assists.
In the end, however, there’s no beating Alexander Ovechkin. In fact, the only way the Caps might lose this series is if Ovi and/or Nicklas Backstrom go down with injuries. Otherwise, the Capitals just have too much depth. They have T.J. Oshie. They have Justin Williams, or Mr. Game 7. To me, there’s no question that the Capitals are going to beat the Flyers and advance to round 2.
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It’s the best time of the year again! With the playoff match-ups all set, it’s time to take a look at each series and who has the advantage. For two days, I’ll be covering both conferences leading up to the first day of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Today, it’s the Western Conference.
San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings
|San Jose Sharks||Los Angeles Kings||Advantage|
|237 GF||223 GF||Sharks|
|2.89 GF/GP||2.72 GF/GP||Sharks|
|207 GA||192 GA||Kings|
|2.52 GA/GP||2.34 GA/GP||Kings|
|55.5 CF60||62.1 CF60||Kings|
|51.9 CA60||48.1 CA60||Kings|
|50.3% FO||49.9% FO||Sharks|
|22.5% PP (3rd in the League)||20.0% PP (8th in the League)||Sharks|
|80.5% PK (21st in the League)||81.4% PK (15th in the League)||Kings|
Overall Advantage: Sharks
Prediction: San Jose in 7
This series is almost too close to call. Sharks fans will always remember the reverse sweep by the L.A. Kings in round 1 two years ago, in which the Sharks gave up a 3-0 series lead and lost it 4-3. I know there are going to be fans out there who are probably asking themselves “well, what makes this year’s Sharks team so special?”. Considering all the previous playoff disappointments, that’s a valid concern. However, just look at the acquisitions that Doug Wilson has gotten, bringing in Paul Martin, Joonas Donskoi, Joel Ward, as well as both Martin Jones and James Reimer.
Despite their overall record at home, this is a much different team than that of 2014. They have a new captain in Joe Pavelski. Joe Thornton’s been playing the best hockey of his career, and Tomas Hertl for the most part has been thriving on that top line. The addition of Joonas Donskoi to the line-up as well as Dainius Zubrus has enabled the Sharks to have a deeper team down the middle. At this point, my only concern is the Sharks’ penalty kill, which has NOT been good of late. Of course, the other problem that would be detrimental to the Sharks is if they lose a top-4 defenseman to injury again, especially Marc-Eduoard Vlasic who’s been a staple on defense while also showing a bit of offensive upside. He’s the best that the Sharks have in terms of a good solid shutdown defenseman. As for the goaltending department, I think the Sharks have probably the best goalie tandem they’ve seen since Evgeni Nabokov played in net for them. Jones has proven to be a bonafide starter for them, and Reimer is a more-than-solid upgrade as the back-up.
As for the Kings, they’ve lost a few key players either to Free Agency or off-ice troubles. Mike Richards is gone. Jarrett Stoll is gone, now with the Minnesota Wild. Slava Voynov is gone and back in his home country of Russia. Last but not least, Mr. Game 7 himself Justin Williams opted for Free Agency and is with the Washington Capitals. So, it’s safe to say that the L.A. Kings line-up has taken quite a bit of a hit. Sure, you can still argue that they have one of the most underrated forwards in the League in Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter as well as Norris Trophy candidate defenseman Drew Doughty. They also have Milan Lucic to bring in more physicality and production to fit their system, and even a bit of agitation.
You can also argue that some of their young forwards can do damage on offense, as well as the acquisition of Vincent Lecavalier, who’s been a Shark killer so far. But that’s all they really have. Furthermore, this was the same team that everyone saw leading the Pacific Division and said they were going to win it by a landslide, but in the end they went through some bumps and patches and eventually couldn’t get over their season-ending rough patch that lead to them losing the division title to Anaheim. They had a 3-0 lead against the Winnipeg Jets, a team that struggled to make the playoffs this year, and blew it in a shootout. So, while this still is an offensively and defensively talented roster, this is by no means easy for the Kings.
One player to for sure keep an eye on for the Kings is Jonathan Quick, as he’s had another great year, finishing with a record of 40-23-5, a .918 SV%, 2.22 GAA, and 5 shutouts. This year, I think he’s once again in the mix for the top goalies in the NHL for the Vezina Trophy should likely be a finalist. He’s just really calm in net and is square to the puck, and that’s all you ask for a goalie to make saves. He’s obviously had success against the Sharks, so look for him to try to make a difference in this series as well.
All-in-all, this is definitely going to be a close one that’ll go down to the wire. However, I think the Sharks will finally beat the Kings after failing to do so for two playoff years (2012, 2014).
Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators
|Anaheim Ducks||Nashville Predators||Advantage|
|215 GF||224 GF||Predators|
|2.62 GF/GP||2.73 GF/GP||Predators|
|188 GA||213 GA||Ducks|
|2.29 GA/GP||2.60 GA/GP||Ducks|
|56.2 CF60||56.1 CF60||Ducks|
|51.1 CA60||50.8 CA60||Predators|
|51.4% FO||49.7% FO||Ducks|
|23.1% PP (1st in the League)||19.7% PP (10th in the League)||Ducks|
|87.2% PK (1st in the League)||81.2% PK (16th in the League)||Ducks|
Overall Advantage: Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim in 7
This is another series that I feel like is going to be close, despite what the stats say. The Anaheim Ducks were off to a surprisingly bad start at the beginning of the regular seasons, when they ranked dead last in offensive production. However, they picked it up and went on an outstanding stretch* to close in with the Sharks in the top-3. Of course, with LA missing their glorious opportunity against the Jets to close out a 3-0 lead with a win and clinch the division title, the Ducks did just that and won against the President’s Trophy winners, the Washington Capitals, by a score of 2-0. So, this is still a very capable Anaheim Ducks team that the Predators are going to deal with.
The big match-up in this series will depth scoring. The Predators have a great top-six unit, with Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen (no. 1 center), and James Neal on the top line and Filip Forsberg (leading scorer with 33 goals), Mike Ribeiro, and Craig Smith on the second line. Johansen was acquired in a trade that sent defenseman Seth Jones to the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, their bottom-six is weaker than the Ducks’. Colin Wilson alone had only 6 goals and finished with 24 points on the season, Mike Fisher with 23, and Arvidsson with 16. That totals to 63 points, only 27 of them were goals. That’s only the third line. Compare that to the Ducks’ third line of Andrew Cogliano, Ryan Kesler, and Jakub Silfverberg.
In the goaltending department for Nashville, Pekka Rinne has had a bit of an off-year. After an outstanding year last season, Rinne finished the 2015-16 campaign with a record of 34-21-10, a .908 SV%, 2.48 GAA, and 4 shutouts. In 6 games played, back-up goalie Carter Hutton posted a 7-5-4 record, a .918 SV%, and 2.33 GAA as well as 2 shutouts. Small sample size, I know, but while Rinne is the undisputed number one starter and as a better record, I feel like Hutton has been the better goalie on the ice. Who would start for Nashville in Game 1? Knowing the Predators, I’m going to say Rinne gets the nod, but he needs to be better if Nashville is going to have a chance to win this series.
That said, the Anaheim Ducks have the advantage in net. Even with the uncertainty of whether to start Frederik Andersen or John Gibson in Game 1, I’d be comfortable with either. When you look at the numbers, however, Gibson does have the better numbers; 40 games played, .920 SV%, 2.07 GAA, and 4 shutouts. Andersen has the better record of 22-9-7. Save percentage is slightly lower at .919, and goals-against average at 2.30 with 3 shutouts. Overall though, both goalies have split almost half the games. Both goalies have little playoff experience. The Ducks relied on Andersen throughout the 2015 playoffs. The last time Gibson was in the playoffs for the Ducks was back in 2014. But, if I were head coach Bruce Boudreau, I’d go for Frederik Andersen, just because he does have more playoff games in hand.
The one thing that could be detrimental for the Ducks is the David Perron injury, who has been week-to-week with a shoulder injury since March 20th. However, the good news for Anaheim is that he is expected to return for the playoff sometime during round. It just won’t be Game 1. Another piece of good news for Ducks fans is that there only three other players (Kevin Bieksa, Rickard Rakell, and Brandon Pirri) injured, and they’re all day-to-day, which means it can’t be long until they join the Ducks’ line-up.
Overall, I think this is going to be a pretty close series, but in the end the Ducks’ offense is going to be too much for the Predators to handle.
Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
|Dallas Stars||Minnesota Wild||Advantage|
|265 GF||213 GF||Dallas|
|3.23 GF/GP||2.60 GF/GP||Dallas|
|228 GA||204 GA||Dallas|
|2.78 GA/GP||2.49 GA/GP||Minnesota|
|61.3 CF60||50.4 CF60||Dallas|
|55.4 CA60||54.9 CA60||Minnesota|
|50.7% FO||52.4% FO||Minnesota|
|22.1% PP (4th in the League)||18.5% PP (15th in the League)||Dallas|
|82.3% PK (10th in the League)||77.9% PK (27 in the League)||Dallas|
Overall Advantage: Dallas
Prediction: Dallas in 5
This is the only series of all the Western Conference match-ups that isn’t going to be close. Both teams are pretty bad defensively, especially Dallas which has one of the worst defenses in the NHL. However, that being said, the scoreboard is the ultimate decider as to who wins the series and who doesn’t. That’s where Dallas has the clear advantage, as Minnesota has struggled more times than not this past regular season to find consistency in their offensive touch. Obviously, Dallas has one of the best offensive duos in the NHL in Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, but they also have Jason Spezza and Patrick Sharp chipping in. If you’re a Minnesota fan, you have to hope that Zach Parise — when he comes back from injury — can lead the way for the Wild so that others can score more as well. Otherwise, Dallas is going to run away with this series.
St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks
|St. Louis Blues||Chicago Blackhawks||Advantage|
|219 GF||234 GF||Chicago|
|2.67 GF/GP||2.85 GF/GP||Chicago|
|197 GA||207 GA||St. Louis|
|2.67 GA/GP||2.85 GA/GP||St. Louis|
|55.5 CF60||53.9 CF60||St. Louis|
|51.2 CA60||55.3 CA60||St. Louis|
|51.4% FO||49.3% FO||St. Louis|
|21.5% PP (6th in the League)||22.6% PP (2nd in the League)||Chicago|
|85.1% PK (3rd in the League)||80.3% PK (22nd in the League)||St. Louis|
Overall Advantage: St. Louis
Prediction: Chicago in 7
Another tight series, it’s no question that these two rivals are going to go down to the wire after all those years of being playoff opponents. These two teams, like LA and San Jose, do not like each other, so I expect it to be a hard-hitting affair. Obviously the Chicago Blackhawks have succeeded in the past and have gotten to where they are now being the defending champions. We all know their leaders and their players (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Marian Hossa, just to name a few). However, this St. Louis Blues team won’t go away quietly either. They have star players who can rise the occasion, like Vladimir Tarasenko. Paul Statsny has also had a pretty good year too with St. Louis.
One important thing to look at for this series is the goaltending match-up. With both Jake Allen and Brian Elliott ready for Game 1, we look at their numbers in the regular season: .920 SV%, 2.35 GAA, and 6 shutouts for Allen, and .930 SV%, 2.07 GAA, and 4 shutouts. In term of postseason stats, in his starts for his past two playoff years (2012, 2015), Allen posted a .904 SV%, while Elliott has a lifetime SV% of .897. Obviously, great in the regular season, but not in the playoffs. That’s where Corey Crawford has the advantage for the Chicago Blackhawks, paired with back-up Scott Darling.
We look at the defense, which is where St. Louis has the advantage on blue line depth, not to mention the Blackhawks are going to be missing Duncan Keith for Game 1 as he’s still serving out his suspension which makes the first game of this playoff series a must-win for the Blues especially on home ice.
Finally, fatigue will also be a factor, as Chicago has played almost four times the amount of playoff games as St. Louis has in the past three years.
This is going to be a hard grinder, a fought playoff series. I think the Chicago Blackhawks are, as always, going to come out as winners in round 1. I think they just have too much talent, and so much organizational depth. It’s going to be too much for St. Louis to handle as the series goes on.
Be sure to check back on Ice Nation UK for the Eastern Conference playoff preview!
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